◎孫宇青
The planet would warm by searing 10C if all fossil fuels are burned, according to a new study, leaving some regions uninhabitable and wreaking profound damage on human health, food supplies and the global economy.
一項新研究指出，地球上所有的化石燃料若全數燃燒，氣溫將會大幅上升攝氏10度，有些地區將不宜居住，人體健康、食物供應和全球經濟也都會遭到重創。
Photograph: Anshuman Poyrekar/Getty Images
The Arctic, already warming fast today, would heat up even more – 20C by 2300 – the new research into the extreme scenario found.
這項新研究深入探討極端情況後發現，如今已快速暖化的北極地區，氣溫增幅恐更為明顯，2300年時將上升攝氏20度。
The carbon already emitted by burning fossil fuels has driven significant global warming, with 2016 near certain to succeed 2015 as the hottest year ever recorded. Other recent studies have shown that extreme heat waves could push the climate beyond human endurance in parts of the world such as the Gulf, making them uninhabitable.
化石燃料燃燒所釋放的二氧化碳，已造成顯著的地球暖化，今年已幾乎確定會超越去年，成為有紀錄以來最熱的一年。近期其他研究也顯示，極端熱浪會讓波斯灣等部分地區的氣候，超越人類的忍耐極限，變得不宜人居。
The new work, published in Nature Climate Change, considers the impact of emitting 5tn tonnes of carbon emissions. The researchers used a series of sophisticated climate models and found this rise in CO2 would lead to surface temperatures rising by an average of 8C across the world by 2300. When the effect of other greenhouse gases is added, the rise climbs to 10C.
這項刊登在《自然氣候變遷》期刊的新研究，對5兆公噸二氧化碳釋放後所造成的影響進行推測。研究人員使用多組精密氣候模型進行實驗後發現，二氧化碳量增加至上述數字後，2300年的地球地面平均溫度將上升攝氏8度。若再計入其他溫室氣體的影響，氣溫將上升攝氏10度。